When Chris and I are working with our clients, we often see resistance to revenue modeling.
The idea of “forecasting” their near future seems like a trip to fantasy island. “Look, Boss, da money! Da money!!”
Really, what are the odds this forecast comes true??
Well, first it’s not meant to be exact science, rather a guidepost for your actions.
That said, there are things you can do to get better…closer…to reality.
What distinguishes good forecasters is their ability to put aside their opinions…at least for awhile…and just focus on accuracy.
Sure, you’re eventually going to reach a point where you’re only going to get as good as you’re going to get. Our environment is in constant shifts, as are your Ideal Customers. Yet, you will be a whole lot better than you are now…if you just get started.
I find most small business owners lean on making vague, cautious, non-committal predictions. They say things like “Well, it could be possible to make $150,000.” Or “I’d like to make a minimum of $10,000 a month.” Or “It might happen.”
Those statements are not at all useful.
If I say something *could* happen—for example the SF Giants *could* win the World Series—what does that mean?
It could mean it might happen. Or we could get hit by an asteroid tomorrow!
There’s a reason we ask you to at least start your revenue model forecast…by making a crude, quantitative judgement you’ll become progressively better and more refined over time (when you pay attention to what you forecasted, what actually happened and examine the differences).
Now you’ll have a score card that gets better and better.
So…if this has you written all over it…stop the stuff about fantasy and just put something probable on paper.
You’ll get better and better at predicting and your actions will become more and more productive.